Eksport Selari Tenaga Baru Memacu Eksport Kereta Terpakai China Melebihi 100,000 Di 2023

Pada bulan Jun 2023, jumlah dan harga urus niaga kereta terpakai kedua-duanya meningkat dari bulan ke bulan, dan volum transaksi terkumpul pada 1H23 mencecah paras tertinggi baharu dalam tempoh enam tahun lalu; peningkatan mutlak dalam kereta penumpang asas terpakai pada 1H23 adalah ketara, dan peningkatan relatif dalam SUV dan trak terpakai adalah ketara.

Pasaran kereta terpakai China dijangka mengekalkan aliran menaik yang stabil pada bulan Julai, dan adalah optimis bahawa jumlah eksport kereta terpakai akan meningkat sepanjang tahun: Memandangkan promosi penggunaan kereta baru-baru ini di pelbagai tempat, sebilangan besar kereta terpakai berkualiti tinggi membanjiri pasaran, dan polisi yang telah memudahkan prosedur transaksi kereta terpakai, Kami menjangkakan bahawa aliran menaik akan dikekalkan pada minggu keempat bulan Julai, dan jumlah volum urus niaga pada bulan Julai mungkin mencecah 1.57 juta kenderaan, +9% tahun ke tahun. Dari segi eksport, terdapat kira-kira 50,000 kenderaan dari Januari hingga Mei di 23 Tahun. Memandangkan terdapat ruang arbitraj yang besar untuk eksport kereta terpakai dan masih terdapat jurang bekalan di Rusia dan negara di sepanjang Belt and Road, kami menjangkakan bahawa eksport kereta terpakai China mungkin melebihi 100,000 Di 2023 , dan masih dikuasai secara selari eksport tenaga baharu.

Teras Pandangan

Pada bulan Jun 23, jumlah dan harga urus niaga kereta terpakai meningkat bulan ke bulan, dan volum urus niaga terkumpul pada 1H23 mencecah paras tertinggi baharu dalam hampir enam tahun

Pada bulan Jun 2023, jumlah urus niaga pasaran kereta terpakai akan +2.5%/+40,000 daripada bulan sebelumnya, Dan +8.2%/+120,000 Untuk 1.53 juta daripada tempoh yang sama tahun lepas, menghampiri jumlah urus niaga pada bulan Jun 2021, and the transaction volume will be +4.4% from the previous month to 1.53 Juta. 97.3 bilion yuan, the transaction volume of bicycles was +1,192 yuan to 63,500 yuan month-on-month; the cumulative transaction volume in 1H23 was +15.6% year-on-year/+3.9% month-on-month to 8.77 juta kenderaan, peningkatan 330,000 vehicles compared with the transaction volume in 1H21, setting a record in the past six and a half years The annual cumulative transaction volume reached a new high, with a cumulative transaction volume of 551.7 bilion yuan.

1H23 The absolute increase of second-hand basic passenger cars is significant, and the relative increase of second-hand SUVs and trucks is significant

From a structural point of view, the used car transaction volume of passenger cars/commercial vehicles in June 2023 meningkat oleh 2.39%/+2.35% month-on-month to 1.23 million/220,000 units, and the cumulative transaction volume of passenger cars/commercial vehicles in 1H23 increased by 15.5% tahun ke tahun /+10.72% Untuk 7.04 million units/1.25 million units, of which the absolute value of second-hand car transactions contributed most to basic passenger cars (1H23 transaction volume accounted for 63%), and the relative value of incremental growth was relatively fast. SUVs and trucks: Used SUVs +7.8% YoY to 200,000 unit pada bulan Jun 2023, +15.2% YoY to 1.12 million units in 1H23, peningkatan 23%/210,000 units compared to 1H21; second-hand trucks grew even more significantly, 1H23 +19.51% year-on-year to 720,000 Unit, peningkatan 120,000 units compared to 1H22, slightly higher than the level of 1H21. From a regional perspective, East China and Central South are the main trading places for used cars in my country. In 1H23, they respectively accounted for 30% of the total transaction volume. Dalam beberapa tahun kebelakangan ini, the used car transaction volume in Northeast China has increased significantly. The transaction volume in 1H23 increased by 55% tahun ke tahun, perakaunan untuk 7%. .

There is a large arbitrage space for the export of new energy second-hand vehicles, and it is expected to continue the strong growth trend

my country started the export of second-hand cars in 2019. Di 2022, the export volume of used cars was about 70,000, and in January-May, 2023, it was about 50,000. 550 million U.S. dollars, 8,000 second-hand commercial vehicles were exported, with an export value of 60 million U.S. dollars, Dan 23,000 second-hand new energy vehicles were exported, with an export value of 530 million U.S. dollars. Antaranya, the parallel export of new energy vehicles is an important driving force for the growth of the second-hand car export market, perakaunan untuk 80%+ (as of 2023.6). We believe that the large arbitrage space is the key to the continued growth of this market: the unit price of my country’s second-hand car exports in 2021-1H22 will increase from 1.5 10,000 U.S.. dollars rose to 23,000 U.S.. dollars, peningkatan 53%, and the arbitrage space for the export of new energy used cars is even more significant.

The Belt and Road Initiative contributes 80% daripada used car exports, and there is a blank supply opportunity in the Russian market

From a structural point of view, countries along the Belt and Road are currently my country’s main second-hand car export markets. In 2021-1H22, the United Arab Emirates/Jordan/Uzbekistan/Ukraine/Nigeria accounted for 69% of my country’s used car exports and 80% of the total export value. We believe that there is a blank supply opportunity in the Russian market, mainly because Russia is the main exporter of Japanese used cars. Di 21 Tahun, it accounted for 13% of Japan’s total used car exports / menyumbang 160,000+ eksport. The increase in sea freight has hindered Japan’s exports to Russia. We believe that my country’s new energy second-hand cars are expected to enter this window and occupy more of the Russian market’s export share.

Pada bulan Julai, my country’s second-hand car market is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, and we are optimistic about the high growth of second-hand car exports throughout the year

In the fourth week of July, the average daily trading volume of used cars in my country was +200 month-on-month/+1100 year-on-year to 58,800, which was basically the same as the level of the second week; as of the 23rd, the cumulative trading volume of used cars in 23 years reached 1.18 Juta. Year-on-year +35,000 Kenderaan. Considering the recent automobile consumption promotion activities in various places, the influx of a large number of high-quality second-hand car sources into the market, and the simplification of the second-hand car transaction procedures on the policy side, we expect the upward trend to be maintained in the fourth week of July, dan jumlah volum urus niaga pada bulan Julai mungkin mencecah 1.57 juta kenderaan , +9% tahun ke tahun. Dari segi eksport, there will be about 50,000 vehicles from January to May 2023. Memandangkan terdapat ruang arbitraj yang besar untuk eksport kereta terpakai dan masih terdapat jurang bekalan di Rusia dan negara di sepanjang Belt and Road, we expect that my country’s second-hand car exports may exceed 100,000 Di 2023 , and is still dominated by parallel exports of new energy.